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Re: Florida Bagists

Posted by **backbeat** on Sep 14, 2017 at 6:23:08 PM:
In Reply to: Re: Florida Bagists posted by **Spiggy Topes** on Sep 14, 2017 at 7:13:05 AM:

*********Stay safe if you are in FL.
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********thanks
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********don't believe all the hype on the MSM
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********they get everyone all panic-y
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********we're staying put
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********we have insurance for the most part.....as do most people....
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********makes no sense to evacuate - the main roads are like parking lots and most gas stations are out of gas...hotels along the interstate all the way up the coast are booked....shelters don't take large breed dogs (i have 3) ...... better off to just hang out and break out the blender and the rum while we have power
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********tryin to reason with hurricane season
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********hj
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*******Been talking to my daughter in Jacksonville and she says the same thing..the media is blowing this up way bigger than it needs to be. Their lust for sensationalism is creating panic and chaos more than the storm itself. Stay safe and if the lights go out just use a spoon to stir that rum. lol.
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******Fake news at its best LOL
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******hopefully your family made it thru with lil harm
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******xoxo
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******hj
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*****Yeah Winston, hope your folks are all ok......
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*****anyway I found this to be a bit weird/ suspect....fake news perhaps???
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*****I was watching the hurricanes progress on this site here.....
*****https://www.windy.com/?30.553,-78.462,6
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*****and it gave the hurricane as following up the west coast, no diversion into centre or east coast at all.....
*****straight up the coast ....you can see where eye is now.....up towards Alabama I guess......
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*****I tuned into CNN this morning and their hurricane chart had it veering right in between Naples and Fort Myers and travelling across up Orlando way....and towards Atlantic coast.....
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*****which to believe??......confusing....
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*****you there j,
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*****Spiggy
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****Thanks...
****Meteorologists are weather guessers..even on daily temperatures.
****Some are more reliable than others. Hurricane basically went up the west side of Florida in a NNW direction. I'll be getting some of the leftover wind and rain where I am later today into tonight. My family down there are fine and were communicating with me the whole time. They had a temporary loss of power and at one point their yard was under water but none of it got inside house so they are fine. Just waiting for everything to dry out and clean up.
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***Hi Winston, so glad to hear all well for your folks, bet you are too.......a real worrying time for all.
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***I was watching it on that Windy site, in real time, which is based on satellite observations and according to that it deffo went up west coast. I couldn't understand why at the very same time CNN showing it veering into central FL then up towards east coast???......just didn't sit right, wish I'd recorded some way what I witnessed . I agree meteorologists often get it wrong, it made me think what the??.....especially with talk here from people in the thick of it, of it all being overblown (pardon pun).....were CNN fearmongering the folks on east coast???.....
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**are you thick as a brick?
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**of course meteorology is not an exact science - duh!!
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**there were hurricane path projections from a number of forecast models presented on CNN and many other stations, with slightly differing paths depending of where it might land along the way causing a deviation in the path and potential change in the category storm level, which they mentioned by name - british, american and other models - the fact of the matter is they were pretty fucking accurate. and Irma was fucking devastating to many islands and people - there was NO hype involved..
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**you present such a parochial perspective - it didn't devastate your section of concern or interest so it was hype - no matter that it historically flattened, totally devastated and killed many others...
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**Weather is a chaotic phenomena so complex that the smallest event can have large effects over time. Forecasts are generated by weather modeling computers which cannot take into account all small events, therefore they cannot always give accurate predictions.
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**The best hurricane forecasting models we have are "global" models that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. Models that solve these equations are called "dynamical" models. The four best hurricane forecast models—ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET—are all global dynamical models. These models take several hours to run on the world's most advanced supercomputers.
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**The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future. The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated weather stations at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. The World Meteorological Organization acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide.
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*Thank you for your reply....really good of you to source that info regarding how weather events are predicted....
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*Couple of things I feel I must point out, as maybe my post wasn't very clear to you and some others...
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*I wasn't talking about predictions, I was witnessing this event in real time. The link I made to the Windy site is based on satellite observations as the hurricane was progressing. Concurrent to this was the CNN report of how the hurricane was progressing.....I still don't understand how they could get it so wrong, nothing to do with predictions. CNN reported this, as I witnessed as it was happening, completely erroneously, Why I ask?
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*Also, I feel your commentary on what people are saying in this thread is a tad unfair. This thread is about Florida Bagists. I'm sure there is not one person here who doesn't feel appalled about the devastation this hurricane caused, nor the lives lost etc.......I'll repeat, this thread is/ was about what is/ was happening in Florida.....think you've jumped the gun a little bit in an effort to condemn people....
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*I also note that you have removed parts of my post regarding looting and the fact that many people on social media were joyous about the fact that this event may destroy Trump's property in Florida. Many people on this site complain when posts are deleted, either wholly or in part.
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*Do you have anything to say about these points?
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*Spiggy

there's so much distraction and slight of hand in your post or maybe better said as rationalization, that it's stunning.

you said 'I agree meteorologists often get it wrong, it made me think what the?'

so i did in fact in my post, 'source that info regarding how weather events are predicted' for your edification re: your post - pretty simple

you were trying to deceive and i was educating you and others that the various hurricane forecasting models that were presented on CNN and other stations (please note that CNN presented a number of models and paths by name) are "global" models that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. These models that solve these equations are called "dynamical" models. The four best hurricane forecast models—ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET—are all global dynamical models and were presented on CNN

just because you happened at a certain time to watch the program as they were presenting one model doesn't mean that was it. in fact they were providing a valid and educated service as to the probability of the most destructive hurricane in recent history's projected path. and again, only through minor and slight changes in course, devastated other regions instead of Florida - what is so hard to understand about that other than you wish to project an ulterior motive by the 'fake media'??

as far as 'jumping the gun a tad to condemn other people' - well please piss-off...is that succinct enough for you??

again the only reason Florida wasn't catastrophically devastated by this storm is because it stalled longer on Cuba and veered very slightly further west - full stop - there was ZERO over-hype of this storm and its potential effects, rather the media and government was demonstrating their responsibility to their citizens.

as for deleting the rest of your post it is simply because i wasn't commenting on it and i wanted the focus to be on the salient points i was making re: that part of your post.

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