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Re: Florida Bagists

Posted by **backbeat** on Sep 13, 2017 at 6:36:17 PM:
In Reply to: Re: Florida Bagists posted by **Spiggy Topes** on Sep 13, 2017 at 1:26:00 AM:

*******Stay safe if you are in FL.
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******thanks
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******don't believe all the hype on the MSM
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******they get everyone all panic-y
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******we're staying put
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******we have insurance for the most part.....as do most people....
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******makes no sense to evacuate - the main roads are like parking lots and most gas stations are out of gas...hotels along the interstate all the way up the coast are booked....shelters don't take large breed dogs (i have 3) ...... better off to just hang out and break out the blender and the rum while we have power
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******tryin to reason with hurricane season
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******hj
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*****Been talking to my daughter in Jacksonville and she says the same thing..the media is blowing this up way bigger than it needs to be. Their lust for sensationalism is creating panic and chaos more than the storm itself. Stay safe and if the lights go out just use a spoon to stir that rum. lol.
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****Fake news at its best LOL
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****hopefully your family made it thru with lil harm
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****xoxo
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****hj
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***Yeah Winston, hope your folks are all ok......
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***anyway I found this to be a bit weird/ suspect....fake news perhaps???
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***I was watching the hurricanes progress on this site here.....
***https://www.windy.com/?30.553,-78.462,6
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***and it gave the hurricane as following up the west coast, no diversion into centre or east coast at all.....
***straight up the coast ....you can see where eye is now.....up towards Alabama I guess......
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***I tuned into CNN this morning and their hurricane chart had it veering right in between Naples and Fort Myers and travelling across up Orlando way....and towards Atlantic coast.....
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***which to believe??......confusing....
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***you there j,
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***Spiggy
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**Thanks...
**Meteorologists are weather guessers..even on daily temperatures.
**Some are more reliable than others. Hurricane basically went up the west side of Florida in a NNW direction. I'll be getting some of the leftover wind and rain where I am later today into tonight. My family down there are fine and were communicating with me the whole time. They had a temporary loss of power and at one point their yard was under water but none of it got inside house so they are fine. Just waiting for everything to dry out and clean up.
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*Hi Winston, so glad to hear all well for your folks, bet you are too.......a real worrying time for all.
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*I was watching it on that Windy site, in real time, which is based on satellite observations and according to that it deffo went up west coast. I couldn't understand why at the very same time CNN showing it veering into central FL then up towards east coast???......just didn't sit right, wish I'd recorded some way what I witnessed . I agree meteorologists often get it wrong, it made me think what the??.....especially with talk here from people in the thick of it, of it all being overblown (pardon pun).....were CNN fearmongering the folks on east coast???.....

are you thick as a brick?

of course meteorology is not an exact science - duh!!

there were hurricane path projections from a number of forecast models presented on CNN and many other stations, with slightly differing paths depending of where it might land along the way causing a deviation in the path and potential change in the category storm level, which they mentioned by name - british, american and other models - the fact of the matter is they were pretty fucking accurate. and Irma was fucking devastating to many islands and people - there was NO hype involved..

you present such a parochial perspective - it didn't devastate your section of concern or interest so it was hype - no matter that it historically flattened, totally devastated and killed many others...

Weather is a chaotic phenomena so complex that the smallest event can have large effects over time. Forecasts are generated by weather modeling computers which cannot take into account all small events, therefore they cannot always give accurate predictions.

The best hurricane forecasting models we have are "global" models that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. Models that solve these equations are called "dynamical" models. The four best hurricane forecast models—ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET—are all global dynamical models. These models take several hours to run on the world's most advanced supercomputers.

The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future. The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated weather stations at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. The World Meteorological Organization acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide.

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